Key Insights:
- Bitcoin entered a bear market in November 2025 using on-chain metrics.
- Historical bear cycles ended after Bitcoin tested the CVDD support level repeatedly.
- Analysts cite supply limits and market maturation as possible cycle drivers today.
- Bitcoin’s 2019 to 2020 correction differed from previous bear market structures considerably.
Bitcoin has remained under pressure since late 2025, as analysis from crypto research suggests the asset is following a pattern seen in previous market downturns. According to the analysis, the token has historically reached market bottoms after testing a specific on-chain support level known as CVDD. Previous bear cycles followed a similar path, and the current trend appears to be moving toward the same area.
Historical Cycles Show Similar Market Behavior
Bitcoin entered a bear market in November 2025, based on a combined reading of multiple on-chain indicators. Alphractal noted Bitcoin’s price movements have followed structured expansion and contraction cycles for more than a decade. The firm noted that many on-chain metrics have accurately tracked major turning points in the market.
The analysis presented two explanations for this pattern. The first focuses on Bitcoin’s limited supply. The asset has a maximum supply of 21 million coins, while some coins remain permanently inaccessible. At the same time, demand changes as traders, investors, and users enter and leave the market. The second explanation centers on Bitcoin’s continuing development as a financial asset.
Market participants may still be able to identify valuation ranges through public blockchain data because the market remains in a maturation phase. Using the Wyckoff market cycle model, Alphractal described the current period as a markdown phase. During this stage, selling pressure exceeds buying demand, and prices trend lower. The firm said this phase normally ends when long-term buyers begin absorbing supply from investors exiting the market.
CVDD Support Remains Key Level for Market Watchers
Alphractal pointed to several historical periods where Bitcoin eventually reached the CVDD support line before beginning a recovery phase. These periods included the bear markets that followed the peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021.
The analysis also referenced a separate market decline between June 2019 and March 2020. Unlike previous bear markets, this downturn occurred during a broader bull cycle. The correction was sharp, but it did not lead to a long accumulation phase.
Bitcoin resumed its upward trend shortly after the correction ended. Alphractal classified the event as a mini bear market rather than a full market cycle. The report also noted that the present cycle contains a data event that has not appeared before in Bitcoin’s network history.
As the token continues trading below its previous highs, market participants are monitoring on-chain data closely. Analysts remain focused on whether historical support levels will once again play a role in defining the next stage of the market cycle.
