Key Insights:
- Tom Lee links Bitcoin’s price movements to the ISM manufacturing index.
- Bitcoin’s correlation with the ISM index suggests potential super-cycles.
- Raoul Pal’s view on Bitcoin’s growth aligns with Tom Lee’s recent comments.
- ISM index above 50 signals expansion, historically leading to Bitcoin and Ethereum growth.
Tom Lee, a prominent strategist, recently addressed the relationship between Bitcoin and the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index. During an appearance on CNBC, Lee confirmed that Bitcoin is highly sensitive to shifts in the ISM, especially when it rises above 50, signaling economic expansion.
According to Lee, historical trends indicate that when the ISM exceeds this threshold, it often coincides with significant upward movements in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The connection between Bitcoin and the ISM index suggests that Bitcoin’s performance is closely tied to broader economic conditions, particularly during periods of economic growth.
Detrended Bitcoin and ISM Correlation
In his remarks, Lee noted that when Bitcoin is “detrended,” meaning its price is adjusted for long-term trends or its 200-day moving average, the cryptocurrency shows a near-perfect correlation with the ISM index. This reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s price movements are not solely influenced by traditional factors like the four-year halving cycle, but also by broader economic trends.
TOM LEE JUST CONFIRMED RAOUL PAL’S THESIS
On CNBC, Tom Lee said #Bitcoin is highly sensitive to the ISM — and when ISM moves back above 50 (expansion), it’s historically lined up with super-cycle moves in $BTC and $ETH.
He even noted detrended Bitcoin is almost perfectly… https://t.co/WemdxiO1qx pic.twitter.com/Lycd4ZJphl
— CryptosRus (@CryptosR_Us) December 11, 2025
Lee’s observation aligns with Raoul Pal’s thesis that Bitcoin’s performance is linked to business cycles and monetary policy. This view suggests that Bitcoin’s market cycles may be more influenced by changes in the economy than previously thought.
Raoul Pal’s Theory and Tom Lee’s Support
Raoul Pal has long argued that Bitcoin’s cycles are closely tied to the business cycle, particularly in relation to economic expansion. Tom Lee’s recent comments provide additional support for this theory. Lee’s insights firm that Bitcoin’s price movements are not entirely governed by the traditional halving cycle, which has been a focus for many Bitcoin analysts in the past.
Instead, Lee suggests that Bitcoin’s performance is more closely aligned with macroeconomic factors, particularly when the ISM index signals growth. Both Lee and Pal’s views highlight the importance of understanding the broader economic environment when analyzing Bitcoin’s potential for growth.
Shifting Focus From Halving Cycles to Economic Trends
For years, the Bitcoin community has been focused on the four-year halving cycle, believing it to be the main driver of price fluctuations. However, Tom Lee’s confirmation of Raoul Pal’s theory suggests a shift in focus. Rather than focusing on halving events, analysts may want to consider broader economic signals, such as the ISM index, when predicting Bitcoin’s future performance.
As the ISM index rises above 50, both Lee and Pal believe this indicates that Bitcoin may enter a “super-cycle,” with significant upward momentum. This view challenges traditional assumptions about Bitcoin’s price patterns, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price movements may be more deeply connected to economic cycles than previously realized.
