TLDR
- Bitcoin Bull Score Index reaches 50, showing equal bullish and bearish signals after months of bearish conditions.
- Past data from March 2022 shows a similar neutral signal that was followed by a sharp price decline.
- Coinbase Premium Gap turns slightly positive, indicating early demand but not strong buying pressure yet.
- Market data suggests Bitcoin may remain range-bound as traders wait for clearer trend confirmation.
Bitcoin’s market structure is showing early signs of transition as the Bitcoin Bull Score Index shifts to neutral after months in bearish territory. The move follows a recovery in price, although past patterns suggest that caution still shapes current market expectations.
Bitcoin Bull Score Index shifts to neutral territory
The Bitcoin Bull Score Index has reached a neutral level of 50 for the first time since Bitcoin peaked above $126,000. This reading reflects an even balance between bullish and bearish on-chain signals.
A recent tweet from CryptoQuant’s head of research noted that the Bitcoin Bull Score Index entered the neutral zone after staying bearish throughout the decline. The tweet referenced a similar setup in March 2022, when the index briefly turned neutral before prices dropped further.
The Bitcoin Bull Score Index combines ten on-chain metrics, including investor profitability, liquidity conditions, and blockchain activity. A reading below 40 indicates a bear market, while above 60 points to a sustained uptrend.
At present, the index suggests a transition rather than a confirmed trend. Half of the underlying indicators have turned positive, while the rest remain weak. This balance reflects improving conditions but not a decisive shift.Source: Cryptoquant
Bitcoin’s price recovery from around $60,000 to $78,000 has supported the move. Even so, analysts note that neutral readings often appear during uncertain phases.
The March 2022 example remains relevant. At that time, Bitcoin rose from $35,000 to nearly $48,000 before reversing sharply. Prices later fell below $20,000, extending the downturn.
Coinbase Premium Gap signals cautious demand recovery
Alongside the Bitcoin Bull Score Index, the Coinbase Premium Gap provides insight into market behavior. The indicator measures price differences between Coinbase and global exchanges, reflecting U.S. demand trends.
Recent data shows a modest positive premium near +30. This level suggests mild buying interest but not strong conviction. Earlier cycles show that sustained readings above +50 often align with stronger upward momentum.
During the previous rally from late 2024 to late 2025, the premium stayed consistently positive. It also recorded sharp spikes above +150, coinciding with Bitcoin’s rise toward $120,000.
However, conditions changed during the correction phase. The premium turned deeply negative, with readings between -100 and -180. That period reflected heavy selling pressure and reduced demand from U.S. participants.
The current recovery phase shows stabilization. The premium has moved back into positive territory, although it remains within a neutral range. This pattern aligns with range-bound price behavior.
Source: Cryptoquant
Market positioning in derivatives also points to limited conviction. Volatility remains subdued, while downside protection continues to attract interest. The term structure shows only a gradual upward slope.
As a result, analysts expect consolidation rather than a breakout in the near term. Bitcoin continues to trade between key support near $60,000 and resistance levels approaching $90,000.
The Bitcoin Bull Score Index remains central to tracking market direction. While the neutral reading marks a shift from bearish conditions, it does not confirm a sustained upward move.
Traders continue to monitor both the Bitcoin Bull Score Index and Coinbase Premium Gap for confirmation signals. A stronger premium combined with higher index readings would support a more defined trend.
For now, the data points to a market in transition. The Bitcoin Bull Score Index reflects improving conditions, yet past patterns suggest that direction remains uncertain.
Related: Bitcoin exchange reserves fall to 2.67M as price nears $77.6K
