Key Insights:
- Long-term Bitcoin holders maintain strong unrealized profits despite recent price movements.
- Short-term holders remain in losses until Bitcoin exceeds $113,200, a major resistance level.
- Profit-taking by long-term holders has slowed, signaling a more cautious market phase.
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Stay Profitable Amid Consolidation
According to analyst Joao Wedson, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) continue to maintain substantial unrealized profits. The group has weathered recent price fluctuations without significant losses, suggesting resilience in their positions.
Wedson explained that “Long-Term Holders remain comfortable still sitting on solid profits,” while short-term holders (STH) are under pressure. The analysis adds that Bitcoin would need to fall below $37,000 for LTHs to experience material unrealized losses, as measured by the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric. This metric serves as a gauge of long-term conviction and profitability.
The stability of LTHs indicates limited selling activity from experienced investors, which can help maintain market balance even during price corrections. Their positions were built during earlier accumulation periods, including March 2024 and December 2024, when many realized gains near all-time highs.
Short-Term Holders Await a Recovery Above $113,200
Short-term Bitcoin holders are currently holding unrealized losses. If BTC climbs back above $113.2K, many short-term holders would finally return to profit. That level also acts as a key resistance zone, where profit-taking behavior could emerge and slow upward movement.
The LTH/STH SOPR Ratio, which tracks profit-taking behavior between both groups, has been declining slightly. This suggests that long-term holders are reducing sales, while short-term holders continue to sell at small profits.
Wedson described this as “a classic late-cycle signal,” though he added that short-term holders might temporarily regain control, similar to late 2021 before new highs were reached. Market conditions suggest that both groups are adapting strategies based on current volatility, with short-term traders awaiting confirmation above primary resistance levels.
